After Gutenberg

jcwinnie

Negotiators in Copenhagen must keep their focus and work toward a final 2010 climate treaty that is effective, inclusive, measurable and adequately financed, said leading non-profit group Environmental Defense Fund.

If negotiators can stay focused on four key building blocks, then a treaty can be signed next year that “is effective, inclusive, measurable and adequately financed.”

“To be effective, a treaty must ensure all major emitters set or prepare to set pollution caps so global carbon emissions start declining within a decade.It’s the only way we can avoid warming of more than two degrees Celsius.”

“A treaty must also be inclusive, opening pathways for emerging economies to join the effort and enter carbon markets to speed their transition to low-carbon economic growth. And one pathway in particular must invite nations to earn financing for reducing tropical deforestation and forest degradation.”

“Third, a treaty must establish a standardized, credible system for nations to measure, report and verify emissions from an historical base year. It’s the only way we can track progress and be sure we’re winning the fight against climate change. Countries must be accountable for compliance.”

“Finally, any treaty must be adequately financed, and since the the bulk of climate finance will flow through the private sector, it’s crucial that carbon markets work. Carbon markets will need clear rules to give businesses a steady signal to invest in efficiency and low-carbon technologies. Without strong rules, it will be nearly impossible to generate sufficient and sustainable finance.”

jcwinnie

G77 refers to “the group that represents 132 developing countries at the UN.”

A disparate collection, they include some of the poorest nations on Earth as well as vulnerable small island states, wealthy oil-exporting counties and others with major economies, such as India and Brazil. Currently chaired by Sudan’s ambassador, Stanislaus Lumumba, it is a force to be reckoned with in the negotiations.

“The Copenhagen summit will discuss cutting harmful CO2 emissions which result from burning fossil fuels with the aviation and shipping industries likely to be drawn into the debate since they account for over 1 billion tonnes of CO2 a year. Vulnerable regions in Africa and south east Asia are already being affected by climate change but the debate on population growth is likely to stay off the agenda, despite the link between the increasing trend and the rise in greenhouse gas emissions”

In Barcelona last month, he made in clear that the G77 wants a fair and legally-binding agreement to emerge from Copenhagen and does not want to see the Kyoto protocol killed off. Suggestions that the summit might only produce a “political agreement” were dismissed out of hand by Lumumba. “Tell me of any politician who delivered on his political manifesto. Is it Gordon Brown? Is it Kevin Rudd?” Within the G77 is the 53-strong African group.

“BASIC,” reports Chetan Chauhan, Hindustan Times, “is the document supported by India, China, Brazil and China fails to get support of G-77 (My Emphasis), which says it lacks specific targets for the rich countries and fails as a counter document for the Danish proposal.”

Instead, the Tuvalu proposal insists that 350ppm be accepted as a threshold, which shut down the plenary session. The point that this blog repeatedly makes is that the parties need to adopt 2 thresholds: 2 degrees centigrade and 350ppm. And, will somebody please shut off those klaxons.

jcwinnie

This blog is learning from advocates at COP15, such as Bill McKibben, that a 2 degrees C threshold is too high. Dessima Williams, seen in the above video, is leading the small islands delegation to these talks.

“We have two research stations, one in the Pacific and one in the Caribbean. They both suggest a rise of 2C is completely untenable for us. Our islands are disappearing, our coral reefs are bleaching, we are losing our fish supplies. We bring empirical evidence to Copenhagen of what climate change is doing now to our states.”

jcwinnie

“From the opening day of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) climate negotiations in Copenhagen, also known as Conference of Parties (COP) 15,” writes Jack Rosebro, “the relevance of a key threshold metric—the 2 °C maximal warming limit, or “guardrail”—has repeatedly been called into question by delegates of COP member states which are particularly vulnerable to climate change.”

The dispute has contributed to a significant split among the primary bloc of developing countries, and has highlighted an increased focus on climate adaptation strategies, in addition to emissions reductions, during the talks.

The prevailing position up to now is that society may be able to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change by limiting average warming of the Earth’s lower atmosphere to no more than 2 ºC (3.6 ºF) above pre-industrial temperatures. A maximum concentration of 450 ppm carbon dioxide (~550 ppm CO2 equivalent) in the Earth’s atmosphere is commonly cited as the limit at which average temperatures can be held at 2 ºC, and many emissions reduction proposals are based upon these two “upper bounds” targets.