Green Car Congress relays a forecast for worldwide growth in (NGVs) Natural Gas Vehicles. Cleantech research firm Pike Research anticipates that there will be 17 million units on the road worldwide by 2015, up from 9.7 million in 2008.
Pike Research forecasts that the NGV market will grow globally at a CAGR of 5.5% to reach just over 3 million vehicles (including conversions) by 2015.
The top five markets for NGVs are currently Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, and India. Pike Research anticipates India will be the fastest-growing NGV market with a CAGR of 18.4% between 2008 and 2015. This rapid expansion will largely be due to the availability of refueling stations and the growth of government emissions rules in large cities in India.
When AG last blogged the Pickens out of this topic, it resulted in a tentative endorsement at best, with considerable attention to the downside. So, an excellent questions is: “Why, then, Mister Ugly American, promote this combustible fuel for developing countries?”
Well, a current, ‘automotive’ news story provides some explanation. Citing poor performance, especially during the cold winter months, 3 Michigan universities are unhappy with electric vehicles that they purchased and want their money back.
While there is potential for the Detroit doldrums spin on the story, an essential truth is that combustible fuel provides a means of storing more energy than now is possible to store in the batteries used in electric drive vehicles. Although the scene is changing, in the United States, a country dependent and dominated by petroleum, little thought still is given to choosing the more polluting, yet “better performing” alternatives.
Similar transportation choices also occur in developing countries where there is less access to petroleum. So when ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) technology is generally available, NGVs seem pragmatic. Instead of opting for excessively polluting ways to make petroleum, ICE vehicles could be converted. This potentially could be a smart choice, where natural gas already is used, there is an absence of electric charging facilities, and there is development of waste to biogas to natural gas production.
It also would seem quite fashionable since NGVs remain an option in developed countries, especially where petrol and diesel are quite expensive, and with the threat of Peak Oil may become more of a mainstream choice.
“Mercedes engineers compiled a full life cycle analysis for the natural-gas vehicle. Assuming a total distance traveled of 150,000 kilometers (93,205 miles), overall CO2 emissions are some 20% below the figure for the comparable gasoline-engined model. NOx emissions are 11% lower, and CO emissions are down 54%.”
