Sustainable Environment Emergency Management Administration

Australian researchers have discovered that the tipping point for ocean acidification caused by human-induced CO2 emissions is much closer than first thought. Dr McNeil warns that this is a tipping point that we don’t want to pass since increase ocean acidification could lead to large scale ecosystem changes.

No tuna fish sandwiches! Where in the heck is SEEMA? (Sustainable Environment Emergency Management Administration)

“There is no such things as SEEMA. You made that up.”

Hey, cupcake, if you believed that, then I’ve got a load of toxic trailers and 4 more years of Wait-and-See policies to sell you.

Dr Jim Hansen is one who sees the writing on the sea wall. We already have begun to see inevitable changes due to rising CO₂ levels, to include ocean acidification, loss of fresh water supplies, and a shifting of climatic zones. He believes that it is essential for us now to make an energy course re-correction, i.e., beyond fossil fuels, if we are to reduce the current atmospheric CO2 amounts.

Put this story in novel form and, in the foreshadowing that occurred in the 1970s, we see that our protagonist may have had the luxury to debate how much a course correction could avert such dire consequences. The tragic flaw, as we later learn, carbon dioxide concentrations are higher today than they’ve been in 650,000 years, and our emissions rate has continued to increase. So, it was crucial that America started to cut emissions when there was such convincing evidence. Howsoever, under the guise or morally upright, fiscally sound, conservative politics, greed dictated that denial and delay become the order of the day.

“Solar thermal panels on the White House roof, what was that hick thinking!”

Something that Ole King Coal and Big Oil disfavor, eh, Dick?

Cumulative Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Different Countries as a Percent of Global Total in 2005

Anyway, some see that such inaction has been a great travesty perpetrated upon life on the planet as we know it. As John Sterman has observed, “Wait-and-see policies erroneously presume climate change can be reversed quickly should harm become evident, underestimating substantial delays in the climate’s response to anthropogenic forcing.”

Now January hopefuls here were are with convincing evidence for an even more critical reason to cut emissions. Howsoever, it would seem that greed will dictate that delay is an acceptable strategy. Ah well, another day in Washington Theater, another chance to fret and strut upon the stage.

Recent Related Stories from ABC

Ocean acidification turns up the volume, Science Online, 01 Oct 2008
Ocean review finds warming on the rise, Science Online, 19 Jun 2008
Southern Ocean rise due to warming, not ice, Science Online, 18 Feb 2008

6 Comments

jcwinnie

Posted 2008-11-11 at 4:52 pm | Permalink

There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age. Indeed, the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then. Thomas Peterson, William Connolley, and John Fleck (2008)
jcwinnie

Posted 2008-11-13 at 8:17 am | Permalink

Los Angeles Treehugger Jeremy Elton Jacquot just made his favorite English teacher shudder by posting that “Things just went from worse to worser in the Southern Ocean.” It was for effect, I assure ya’.

Image from huangjiahui

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, seasonal changes in pH and the concentration of carbonate could be compounding the impact of anthropogenic emissions, speeding up the process of ocean acidification by almost 30 years, reports ABC Science‘s Bianca Nogrady. Pushing the ocean much further could weaken the Southern Ocean’s ability to absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide and dramatically alter its ecosystem structure, the lead author, Ben McNeil of the University of South Wales, warns.

The end of marine life as we know it?

The consequences for marine organisms, particularly those which form shells or skeletons made out of calcium carbonate, would be devastating. A low pH reduces the availability of carbonate and bicarbonate ions in the ocean; if carbonate levels are low enough, calcium carbonate (CaCO3) becomes more soluble and dissolves back into the water, inhibiting the ability of shelled plankton like coccolithophores or pteropods to make their shells.

As surface waters become more acidic, the “saturation horizon,” which is defined as the natural boundary in the water column below which CaCO3 dissolves, is expected to rise — reducing precious habitat space for these and other organisms. This matters because many other organisms up the food chain depend either directly (zooplankton) or indirectly (fish and other larger predators) on their presence. (In other words, many of these species are likely to go extinct.)

Picturing a worst worst-case scenario

Previous studies had predicted that the Southern Ocean’s surface waters would become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, one of two forms of CaCO3 (the more soluble one), by mid-century (550 parts per million by 2060, according to Julia Whitty). Several recent models have determined that surface carbonate ion concentrations have already fallen by almost 10 percent since pre-industrial times; they are likely to fall much further by century’s end if present trends continue. (John recently noted that ocean acidity levels were up a whopping 30 percent since the advent of the Industrial Revolution.)

This passage from an article in Mongabay puts the study in (stark) perspective:

Oceans worldwide absorbed approximately 118 billion metric tons of carbon between 1800 and 1994 according to a report published in 2006 by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and NOAA, resulting in increased ocean acidity. Should CO2 emissions continue at their current rate, scientists project that global ocean pH levels could drop from 8.1 today to 7.7 by 2100.

In the past, changes in ocean acidity have triggered mass extinction events. According to a study published in the September 2006 issue of Geology, dramatically warmer and more acidic oceans may have contributed to the worst mass extinction on record, the Permian extinction. During the extinction event, which occurred some 250 million years ago, about 95% of ocean’s life forms became extinct.

Oceana report: Fixing ocean acidification now would save billions

This study coincides with a new report, entitled “Acid Test,” released today by our friends at Oceana, which finds that slowing ocean acidification (stopping it completely is now, unfortunately, not a possibility) could save billions in lost revenue from the fishing and eco-tourism industries down the road. The actions they believe policymakers should take include:
- * Adopt a policy of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide at 350 parts per million or below (that would require an 85 percent cut in emissions below 2000 levels by 2050)
- * Promote energy efficiency and low carbon fuels
- * Transition quickly to alternative energy sources
- * Regulate carbon releases
- * Preserve natural resilience of marine ecosystems by protecting them from overfishing and pollution
The science in the report is rock-solid. As Juliana Stein, Oceana’s communications manager, pointed out to me, the authors consulted with top climate scientists like NASA’s James Hansen before writing it (hence the 350 ppm figure, which is also the level eco-activists like Bill McKibben say we should cap CO2 at). It doesn’t exactly make for uplifting reading, but I hope some of President-elect Obama’s science advisers will pick up on it.

More Treehugger info about ocean acidification
jcwinnie

Posted 2008-11-13 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

Green Car Congress relays some dismal environmental news about man-made ABCs (Atmospheric Brown Clouds).

Cities from Beijing to New Delhi are getting darker, glaciers in ranges like the Himalayas are melting faster and weather systems becoming more extreme due in part to the combined effects of man-made Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

These are among the conclusions of scientists studying a more than three km-thick layer of soot and other manmade particles that stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to China and the western Pacific Ocean. The team, drawn from research centers in Asia including China and India, Europe and the United States, has just published their latest and most detailed assessment of the phenomenon. Their preliminary assessment was published in 2002.

ABCs start as indoor and outdoor air pollution consisting of particles and pollutant gases, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3), and hundreds of organic gases and acids. Widespread ABC plumes resulting from the combustion of biofuels from indoors; biomass burning outdoors; and fossil fuels are found in all densely inhabited regions and oceanic regions downwind of populated continents.

There are five identified regional ABC hotspots around the world:
- * East Asia
- * Indo-Gangetic Plain in South Asia
- * Southeast Asia
- * Southern Africa
- * Amazon Basin
Image: NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center

“A satellite image from 2003 shows a dense blanket of polluted air over central eastern China covering the coastline around Shanghai.”

ABC hotspots

Regions where the annual mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) exceeds 0.3 and the percentage of contribution by absorbing aerosols exceeds 10% (absorbing AOD > 0.03).
Although substantial loadings of ABCs over Eastern USA and Europe have also been observed, in these extra-tropical regions the atmospheric concentrations of ABCs are large mainly during the summer season since precipitation removes the aerosols efficiently during other seasons. Furthermore, the soot concentrations are lower and hence these extra tropical regions are not included in the hotspots category.

In Asia, new aircraft and satellite data have revealed that ABC plumes, measuring 1-3km thick, surround the Hindu Kush-Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers, both from the South Asian and the East Asian sides. Between 1950 and 2002, soot emissions increased three-fold in India and five-fold in China, while sulfur emissions have increased ten-fold in China and seven-fold in India.

The brown clouds are in some cases and regions aggravating the impacts of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, says the report. Particles like black carbon and soot in ABCs absorb sunlight and heat the air and gases such as ozone enhance the greenhouse effect of CO2.

Globally, however, brown clouds may be masking the warming impacts of climate change by between 20 and up to 80%, the researchers suggest, due to other particles in the ABCs such as sulfates and some organics which reflect sunlight and cool the surface.

Another effect of the aerosols in the brown clouds is to make hot spots dimmer. Dimming of between 10-25% is occurring over cities such as Karachi, Beijing, Shanghai and New Delhi. Guangzhou is among several cities that have recorded a more than 20% reduction in sunlight since the 1970s. For India as a whole, the dimming trend has been running at about 2% per decade between 1960 and 2000—more than doubling between 1980 and 2004. In China, the observed dimming trend from the 1950s to the 1990s was about 3-4% per decade, with the larger trends after the 1970s.

Regions with large concentrations of ABCs may be getting cloudier which can also contribute to dimming but data are not sufficient to quantify this effect. Particles and aerosols in the ABCs may act to inhibit the formation of rain drops and rainfall.

The cloud is also having impacts on air quality and agriculture in Asia increasing risks to human health and food production for three billion people.

ABCs and Global Warming.

The increase in global temperature linked with greenhouse gas emissions may currently be between 20-80% less as a result of brown clouds around the world, says the report.

As a result, if brown clouds were eliminated overnight, this could trigger a rapid global temperature rise of as much as 2° C. Added to the 0.75° C rise of the 20th century, this could push global temperatures well above the +2° C threshold considered by many scientists to the point for dangerous climate change. Thus, simply tackling the pollution linked with brown cloud formation without simultaneously delivering big cuts in greenhouse gases could have a potentially disastrous effect.

Complex Regional Impacts on Temperature.

The science of ABCs, woven with the science of greenhouse gases, is not simple and may be behind some highly complex warming and cooling patterns witnessed on continents and in different regions of specific countries.
- *The masking of greenhouse warming by ABCs may in part be the explanation for the lack of a strong warming trend over India since the 1950s during the dry season which runs from January to May.
- *ABCs may explain in part why the warming trend in India’s nighttime temperatures is much larger than the trend in daytime temperatures.
- *Annual mean temperatures in mainland China have risen by more than one degree C in the past half century. However the trends have not been uniform with the Tibetan Plateau and the North, Northeast and Northwest of China experiencing the highest temperature rises. Conversely Southwest and central Eastern China has experienced a strong cooling trend of between 0.1 to 0.3 degrees C per decade.
The authors note that the combined effects of greenhouse gases, ABCs and rapid urbanization are required to explain the complex pattern of warming and cooling trends in China.

Impacts on Weather Patterns Including the East Asian Monsoon.

The large heating and cooling effects of ABCs respectively in the atmosphere and at the surface, combined with the impacts of greenhouse gases, may be also triggering sharp shifts in weather patterns.

This is being aggravated by dimming over the Northern Indian Ocean versus the relatively clean Southern Indian Ocean setting up new gradients in surface sea temperatures and surface sea evaporation rates.

ABCs, along with the global warming, may thus be acting to trigger significant drying in northern China and increased risk of flooding in southern China while in part also triggering other environmental and economic effects.
- * Overall decrease in monsoon precipitation over India and Southeast Asia by between 5-7% since the 1950s.
- * Since the 1950s the Indian summer monsoon is not only weakening but shrinking with a decrease in early and late season rainfall and a decline in the number of rainy days.
- * In both China and India extreme rain events of more than 100 mm a day have increased.
- * In both India and China very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm a day have nearly doubled.
Impact on Glaciers.

The Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan glaciers provide the head-waters for the major river systems including the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong and Yangtze rivers. The Ganges basin is home to more than 400 million people and holds 40% of India’s irrigated croplands.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences estimates that the glaciers have shrunk 5% since the 1950s and the volume of China’s nearly 47,000 glaciers has fallen by 3,000 square km over the past quarter century.

Glaciers in India such as the Siachen, Gangotri and Chhota Shigiri glaciers are retreating at rates of between 10 and 25 meters a year. The retreat has accelerated in the past three and-a-half decades. The Gangotri glacier alone provides up to 70% of the water in the Ganges.
- * The report suggests that ABC solar heating of the atmosphere, due to the absorption of soot and black carbon pollution, is as important as greenhouse gas warming in accounting for the anomalously large warming trend observed in the elevated regions such as the Himalayan-Tibetan region.
- * Decreased reflection of solar radiation by snow and ice due to increasing deposits of black carbon is emerging as another major contributor to the melting of ice and snow.
- * Elevated regions of the Himalayas within 100 km of Mount Everest experience large black carbon concentrations ranging from a few hundred to a few thousand nano grams per cubic metre.
Impacts on Agriculture.

A great deal more research is required, the authors say, to determine crops at risk and the precise role various ABC-linked effects—separately or in combination with those of greenhouse gases—may or may not be having. However, possible effects may include:
- * Damage to crops as a result of increased ground level ozone. In Europe a threshold concentration at which damage can occur is deemed to be 40 parts per billion The report says that in parts of Asia ground level ozone can reach 50 parts per billion during February to June and peaking again between September and November at 40 parts per billion.
- * The studies suggest that growing season mean ozone concentrations in the range 30-45 parts per billion could see crop yield losses in the region of 10-40% for sensitive cultivars of important Asian crops such as wheat rice and legumes.
- * A recent study translated such impacts on yield into annual economic losses estimating that for four key crops—wheat, rice, corn and soybean—these may amount to around $5 billion a year across China, the Republic of Korea and Japan.
- * Other effects may include damage linked with the various acidic and toxic particles from brown clouds depositing on plants from the atmosphere.
- * Reduced levels of photosynthesis and thus crop production due to dimming.
Health Impacts of ABCs.

Brown clouds contain a variety of toxic aerosols, carcinogens and particles including particulate matter (PM) of less than 2.5 microns in width. These have been linked with a variety of health effects from respiratory disease and cardio-vascular problems.
- * Increases in concentrations of PM 2.5 of 20 micrograms per cubic meter in the air could lead to about 340,000 excess deaths per year in China and India.
- * The World Health Organization estimates that more than 780,000 deaths in the two countries can be linked to solid fuel use in the home.
- * Economic losses due to outdoor exposure to ABC-related PM 2.5 has been crudely estimated at 3.6% of GDP in China and 2.2% of GDP in India.
Project Atmospheric Brown Cloud was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 2002 following the documentation of brown clouds and haze by the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX). The science secretariat of ABC is located at the Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD.

We believe today’s report brings ever more clarity to the ABC phenomena and in doing so must trigger an international response—one that tackles the twin threats of greenhouse gases and brown clouds and the unsustainable development that underpins both.

One of the most serious problems highlighted in the report is the documented retreat of the Hind Kush-Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers, which provide the head-waters for most Asian rivers, and thus have serious implications for the water and food security of Asia. The new research, by identifying some of the causal factors, offers hope for taking actions to slow down this disturbing phenomenon; it should be cautioned that significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of the complexity of the regional effects of ABCs and more surprises may await us.

—Professor Veerabhadran Ramanathan, head of the UNEP scientific panel carrying out the ABC research

The current project is funded by UNEP with support from the governments of Italy, Sweden and the United States.

jcwinnie

Posted 2008-11-13 at 6:09 pm | Permalink

Speaking of the negative effect upon people’s health because of air pollution, Green Car Congress relays news of a new study, co-authored by two economics professors at CSUF (California State University, Fullerton). Jane V. Hall and Victor Brajer of CSUF and Fred Lurmann, manager of exposure assessment studies at Sonoma Technology, Inc released a study on how air pollution costs the California economy more than $28 billion annually.

They examined the health and economic consequences of two pollutants, ozone and particulate matter (PM_2.5). Despite the existence of federal and state standards, and widespread consensus on the danger of these pollutants, “the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley air basins of California have air pollution levels that are among the worst in the US.”

“The study, which focuses on the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley air basins, also found that the air pollution in these regions contributes to more than 3,800 premature deaths each year.”

Both the federal government and California have set health-based air quality standards for ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has classified the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB), which includes Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, as an extreme nonattainment area for ozone. The San Joaquin Valley Air Basin (SJVAB) also is designated an extreme nonattainment area for ozone. Both air basins are classified as serious nonattainment areas for PM_2.5.

Between 2005 and 2007 ambient ozone levels in the San Joaquin Valley exceeded the health-based 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) on from 112 to 139 days a year, while in the South Coast Air Basin exceedances occurred on from 115 to 120 days. Fine particulate levels would need to fall by more than 50% to meet the maximum 24-hour standard, and annual average concentrations need to drop by nearly 30%. “These health-based standards will be very difficult to achieve,” the authors note.

Pollution sources in the two areas vary, but fuel combustion, including heavy-duty diesel truck exhaust, dominates both regions. Exposure to air pollution causes premature death, hospitalizations and respiratory symptoms, limiting a person’s normal daily activity and increasing school absences and loss of workdays, said the researchers. The cost reflects the impact these health problems have on the economy.

Each year, the life- and health-threatening levels of pollution cause the following adverse health effects for the two basins:

Premature deaths among those age 30 and older: 3,812
Premature deaths in infants: 13
New cases of adult onset chronic bronchitis: 1,950
Days of reduced activity in adults: 3,517,720
Hospital admissions: 2,760
Asthma attacks: 141,370
Days of school absence: 1,259,840
Cases of acute bronchitis in children: 16,110
Lost days of work: 466,880
Days of respiratory symptoms in children: 2,078,300
Emergency room visits: 2,800

The resulting cost of air pollution in the San Joaquin Valley is more than $1,600 per person per year, or $6 billion to the region’s economy, according to the researchers. Simply meeting federal clean-air standards would save the region that annual cost. In the South Coast air basin, the cost is more than $1,250 per person per year, making the annual total savings nearly $22 billion if federal clean-air standards were met.

“To place the reduction in premature deaths in perspective, attaining the federal PM_2.5 standard would save more lives than reducing the number of motor vehicle fatalities to zero in most of the counties in this study.”

—Fred Lurmann

In Los Angeles County, pollution-related deaths are more than double the number of motor vehicle-related deaths.

Exposure to these pollutants directly leads to poorer health and premature death, but these adverse effects are not distributed equally within the regions. Traditionally, communities of color and low-income communities are most affected by air pollution, but the report found that exposure to these pollutants is equalizing.

The largest contributing factor is where people live. At one time, the worst exposure was in areas where poor or minority families reside; this time researchers found that the dangers of pollution are moving beyond the poor and minority neighborhoods. Exposure is evening out. For example, each person, on average, was exposed to ozone pollution above the legal limit on nearly 20 days and 30 days a year in the South Coast air basin and San Joaquin Valley, respectively. However, the number of days rises to nearly or more than 50 days in Kern, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

In the San Joaquin Valley, 100% of the population is exposed to health-endangering levels of PM_2.5, as well as 91% in the South Coast air basin. However, the percent of the population exposed rises to 97% in Los Angeles County, while 100% of residents in San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern counties are exposed to PM_2.5 annually.

The study, “The Benefits of Meeting Federal Clean Air Standards in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins,” was conducted by the Institute for Economics and Environmental Studies at Cal State Fullerton and Sonoma Technology Inc. and funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.

GCC Recommended Resource

The Benefits of Meeting Federal Clean Air Standards in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins

jcwinnie

Posted 2008-11-13 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

Sarah Kuck notes that a recent study “offers hard evidence of something many of us have known for a long time: access to nature improves our health.”

According to the researchers’ findings, as reported in this BBC article, the abundance of green space in a city can help protect residents from strokes and heart disease, and can reduce health inequalities related to income and social deprivation. Even small parks, they said, greatly narrow the health gaps between these populations.

When the records of more than 366,000 people who died between 2001 and 2005 were analyzed, it revealed that even tiny green spaces in the areas in which they lived made a big difference to their risk of fatal diseases.

Although the effect was greatest for those living surrounded by the most greenery, with the “health gap” roughly halved compared with those with the fewest green spaces around them, there was still a noticeable difference.

The change was particularly clear in areas such as heart disease and stroke, supporting the idea that the presence of green spaces encourages people to be more active.

However, the researchers, Dr Richard Mitchell from Glasgow University, and Dr Frank Popham, from the University of St Andrews, said that other studies had suggested that contact with green spaces also helped reduce blood pressure and stress levels, perhaps even promoting faster healing after surgery.

Creating equal access to green space is clearly an environmental justice issue: the more funding the parks in your neighborhood receive, the better kept and abundant the parks will be, resulting in better health for you and your neighbors. The big picture benefit from this study’s findings is that city officials, such as planners and council members, can use this scientific evidence to help fund parks and other green spaces that will improve the health and wellness of all residents.
jcwinnie

Posted 2008-11-16 at 11:41 am | Permalink

Douglas Fischer, Daily Climate editor has more bad news for the sea snail, to include a Gore videography. “What alarms the scientists most,” bewails Fischer and others, “is the rate of change: The transformation has happened over 250 years, faster than anything in the historical record.”

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By After Gutenberg » World Class Streets on 2008-11-18 at 11:40 am

[...] to the Dwarf. Oh, and you may want to humor the editor and subscribe to the RSS feed. Bye Now!Speaking of green space in a city that can help protect residents from strokes and heart disease, and can reduce health inequalities [...]
By After Gutenberg » Yes, We Have No Tuna Fish Sandwiches, We Have No Tuna Today on 2008-12-4 at 4:04 am

[...] Wilkommen! New here, eh? Me, too. A word of advice. Pay No Attention to the Dwarf. Oh, and you may want to humor the editor and subscribe to the RSS feed. Bye Now!Subtitle: Or so it would SEEMA [...]

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