Subtitle: Irrevocably, No Coal
As soon as the transition team steps in, the message should be clear. We are going to shut down the worse offenders, the ones that should have been made to stop before. The only other acceptable time frame is Yesterday.
And, we are going to require all utilities to report total carbon emissions produced. Either they can do the accounting with independent verification or pay to have the government do it. The coal bucket stops here and now.
Why? If you had you head buried, er, somewhere, then this may come as news: If climate disasters are to be averted, then “atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) must be reduced below the levels that already exist today.” Most recently, this observation appeared in a study published in Open Atmospheric Science Journal by a group of 10 scientists from the United States, the United Kingdom and France. The supporting evidence should be familiar to those that read this blog.
If you plot temperature versus concentration of carbon dioxide, 2 crucial points about the planet’s current situation become evident:
- 1. There is warming in the pipeline, like it or not. Today (pt. A) lies far outside the cluster of data points from the Vostok core. Those points represent a rough historical relationship between temperature presuming the climate is at equilibrium. Right now, we are experiencing what climate modelers call the transient response to CO2 forcing. If CO2 concentrations froze now, global temperatures would continue to rise until the climate reached equilibrium.
- 2. That equilibrium point lies outside any experience the planet has had in the past 420,000 years, even without any future increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (as the current CO2 level is unprecedented). A further increase places the planet in an even farther outside the envelope of anything in the “recent” geological record, to use a geologists warped definition of the word recent.
There are several disastrous consequences to climate change. Let’s pick one from the recent news. Hurricanes are an example of climate disasters. This year a new record was set. During hurricane season in the Atlantic, a major hurricane occurred in five separate months: Hurricane Bertha in July, Hurricane Gustav in August, Hurricane Ike in September, Hurricane Omar in October, and Hurricane Paloma in November. Climate scientist Joseph Romm advises us to expect “this deadly record (a major hurricane occurring in five separate months) to be repeated many times.”
Research on Arctic and North Atlantic ecosystems shows the recent warming trend counts as the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago. We are seeing a continuation of current patterns of change that will further alter ocean circulation on a global scale. Such disruption will have significant impact upon the climate and Biosphere.
P.S. Floridians, yes, you, too, are part of the Biosphere.
In 2006, there were numerous instances in which top officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and scientists at the National Hurricane Center sought to downplay links between more-intense hurricanes and global warming. An increase in severity and frequency of hurricanes already had been expected because global warming was cooking the Atlantic. But, in 2006, mostly what was accomplished was to call further attention to the censoring and undue influence upon federally funded scientists.
Denial at a federal level continues, even as the consequences become more dire, yet, with election of Barack Obama as the 44th president, the momentum may have change. As 2008 is coming to a close, we in America have come to a point, observes Al Gore, that we finally may be willing “to begin an emergency rescue of human civilization from the imminent and rapidly growing threat posed by the climate crisis.”
We already have passed a number of limits. It is time to go In Reverse.
Still, what is specifically meant by such an emergent resuscitation depends upon who you ask. If you ask this blog about humanity’s path to self destruction, the answer could vary from a definite, “It’s too late,” to a somewhat more hopeful discourse on the importance of stopping carbon emissions from coal powered generation of electricity. Both Nobel Laureate Al Gore and Jim Hansen, lead author of the recently published study concur with the latter. (Al, Jim, I’m glad that we agree. Let’s do lunch.)
Coal is the largest source of atmospheric CO2 and the one that would be most practical to eliminate. According to the recent study it is essential that we lower for the near future the targeted level for atmospheric CO2. The authors of the study assert that a critical step to meeting such a target is to require that there be a moratorium on any new coal use that does not capture CO2, and an immediate start to a complete phase out of existing coal emissions by 2030.
Romm’s reminder is no less chilling for those of us in agreement about No Coal:
Humanity’s task of moderating human-caused global climate change is urgent. Ocean and ice sheet inertia provide a buffer delaying full response by centuries, but there is a danger that human-made forcing could drive the climate system beyond tipping points such that change proceeds out of our control.
More from the “Hell and High Water is Nigh” guy here.
Gore’s recommendations published in the NY Times editorial are broader and more politically savvy. While Gore’s recommendations are less onerous, such optimism may be ill-advised. Martin Parry has observed,
We have lost ten years talking about climate change but not acting on it. …A curious optimism—the belief that we can find a way to fully avoid all the serious threats—pervades the political arenas… This is false optimism, and it is obscuring reality. The sooner we recognize this delusion, confront the challenge and implement both stringent emissions cuts and major adaptation efforts, the less will be the damage that we and our children will have to live with.
GCC Recommended Resources
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James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, David Beerling, Robert Berner, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Mark Pagani, Maureen Raymo, Dana L. Royer, James C. Zachos (2008) Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? The Open Atmospheric Science Journal Vol. 2 doi: 10.2174/1874282300802010217
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Critics would point to the following info-mercial, as an example of unfounded optimism. The problem is that for such critics, coal and nuclear are acceptable solutions, rather than unthinkable.
“Now that we know how far we are past the carbon tipping point, it’s time to freak out—and get to work.”
From a Editorial in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer:
Sounds good. Unfortunately, the president-elect may have worn holes in his shoes from campaigning, but our Senators are well-heeled (read expensive to buy).
(The shoes, of course. Why? What did you think I meant?)
Sandra Upson looks at the broad view:
Speaking of a convergence between economics, environment and national security, CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) is saying, “I told you so.”
“Among the prerequisites for sustainable development is the conservation of living resources. For development to be sustainable, it must take account of social and ecological factors, as well as economic ones; of the living and non-living resource base; and of the long term as well as the short term advantages and disadvantages of alternative actions.”
In another more recent post Climate scientist Joseph Romm elaborates upon other disastrous consequences to climate change.
What does Satyagraha mean to the Youth Climate Movement?
We are the bearers of truth, the defenders of reason, facts, and science. I can say this with the utmost certainty knowing that the global scientific community has spoken and the science is conclusive. WE KNOW THE TRUTH. We are right and the climate deniers are so clearly and painfully wrong. With confidence we must confront the lies and false solutions of the fossil fuel industry head on. We must overpower them with the blinding light of truth.
We as young people have a tremendous power. A force or “Agraha” that is undeniable. I have been constantly blown away by the infinite power of people when we come together and demand social justice. I truly believe that we can accomplish anything. In the last several months alone we have had millions of conversations about clean, just energy and gotten almost 350,000 people to join our movement. Wow! Just think about that for a moment.
It is time for us to take more nonviolent direct action. Even Al Gore has called for it on several occasions , and I was half expecting him to lead into on the webcast, because for me non-violent direct action is at the very core of Satyagraha. It is encouraging to see more and more of these actions happen across the country. We are a force so full of love and youthful energy that we are ready to lay it all on the line. Gandhi dismissed the ineffectiveness of mere ‘passive resistance’. It is time for Gandhian style mass actions like his epic Salt March that move beyond what he called mere ‘passive resistance’ and that will inspire the world with our courage. With our very future at stake, what more do we have to lose?
Above all else, this is the most important. In the words of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., “At the center of non-violence stands the principle of love.” We do this work out of love for our fellow human beings. Out of our refusal to stand ideally by and allow others to suffer and be poisoned by the effects dirty energy. We do this out of love for each other; for our friends, co-workers, coalition partners that inspire and give us the strength to keep on fighting. At the end of our lives we will only be remembered for how much we loved, and how deeply.
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[...] this story in novel form and, in the foreshadowing that occurred in the 1970s, we see that our protagonist may have had the luxury to debate how much a course correction could [...]