Yuv got to helps us, A123

I visited a physicist* friend, who runs a growing business installing Hadron colliders solar photovoltaic panels and got to admire her recumbent. (And, the geeks go “Wink, Wink, Nudge, Nudge”.)

*e.g., she understands this stuff.

She expressed an interest in selling electric vehicles from her store front. Although solar energy is generally impractical for directly powering a vehicle, there is potential symbiosis. Photovolatic panels can offer low cost, solar trickle charging of those battery systems that are needed for traction applications. Furthermore, Professor Andy Frank (among others) advocates (and has successfully demonstrated) “Collecting the Sun Today to run Your Plug-in Hybrid Tomorrow“.

E-Bike
There are e-bike markets in Asia and Europe. With rising gas prices, is there a potential market in North America?

In a related email correspondence, another friend asked, “What are the markets and customers?” My reply was that one might assume that the market arises from an increased interest coincident with an increase in gas prices. Such observations have been made in regard to electric scooters. Recently, engineer and Gristmill contributor, Russ Finley, a.k.a., biodiversitist came across a Time magazine article with the pithy title “Electric Bikes Sell as Gas Climbs.”

… sales [of electric bikes in general] are up about 50 percent so far this year over last. Amazon.com Inc. says sales of electric bikes surged more than 6,000 percent in July from a year earlier, in part because of its expanded offerings.

A few hundred dollars gets you an IZIP mountain bike from Amazon with a heavy lead-acid battery. For $1,400, you can buy a 250-watt folding bike powered by a more-powerful, longer-lasting nickel-metal hydride battery like those in a camera or a Toyota Prius. At the high end, $2,525 buys an extra-light 350-watt model sporting a lightweight lithium-ion battery similar to a laptop’s

A2B e-bike
“89,000 electric bikes were sold in the Netherlands last year, while 60,000 power-assisted bikes were sold in Germany … in China, … they are selling at the rate of 2.6 million electric bikes a year.”

In the article Finley has the following observation:

The world really needs a standard battery pack as reliable, robust, and powerful as the 36-volt Dewalt power tool line, complete with a battery management system designed for electric bikes that can be charged in under and hour and be chained together as is done with 12-volt lead-acid batteries to obtain different voltages and amp-hour ratings.

You bet your diandong zixingche, boopsie! First we need batteries, then we can add the solar panels or other charging stations that use renewable energy.

Hm, let’s see, if a Peabody death train leaves a Philadelphia Speech at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Democrat Time, then what percent of 2.6 million ebikes will need thin film solar cells by 2010?

nanosolar
TFPV (Thin Film Photo Voltaic) development is ramping up, led by a company called Nanosolar.

Did you remember to carry the Nanosolar?

Other Possibly Related AG Posts Automatically Generated

9 Comments

  1. jcwinnie
    Posted 2008-9-2 at 4:54 am | Permalink

    Domenick Yoney relays a Reuters report. CEO Charles Gassenheimer stated that Ener1 may be able to cut the cost of lithium ion battery prices in half.

    If they can achieve their cost-reduction goals, the pay-back period for all-electric cars may be reached in as little as two years instead of the current 7 or 8 if the price of oil stays around $100 a barrel.

    Th!nk web site
    Already making batteries used for plug-in Prius conversions, Ener1 has a $70 million supply deal with Th!nk.

    Of course this kind of sea change in price will require a huge increase in volume. Gassenheimer says they will need to have volumes in the hundreds of thousands to achieve this price drop but silver-lines that cloud by saying, “But the important point of this here is the demand side of this equation doesn’t seem to be the problem.” He says demand is “off the charts in Europe and Asia” and expects American demand to keep increasing as well.

  2. jcwinnie
    Posted 2008-9-2 at 5:03 am | Permalink

    And, Green Car Congress reports that “Bosch and Samsung expect a market volume of some three million hybrid vehicles by 2015.

    The 50-50 joint venture of Bosch and Samsung SDI is the development, manufacture, and sale of lithium-ion batteries for automotive applications.

    The prime objective of [SB LiMotive] is to optimize lithium-ion battery technology to meet the exacting requirements associated with the automobile—with respect to power density and safety, for example—to allow purely electrically powered driving over longer distances.

  3. jcwinnie
    Posted 2008-9-3 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

    A sign of how mainstream they’re getting, electric bikes are being sold on websites of Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

    Rob DeHoff rides an A2B
    Rob DeHoff riding an Ultramotor A2B that he sells at his bicycle shop.

    Target.com has carried two models of electric bicycles since July 30, according to Target spokeswoman Brandy Doyle. Three more models were being added this month, she said. As it does with many new products, the company is reviewing whether the bikes will be introduced to stores, Doyle said.

    Wal-Mart began carrying a few models on its website last spring. “We certainly have seen a fast-growing interest, since they are easy to use and economical, and therefore they do not stay long in stores,” spokeswoman Tara Stewart said.

    “When the price of gas hit $4 a gallon, the spike in interest surged.”

  4. jcwinnie
    Posted 2008-9-12 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

    According to Lux Research’s Alternative Power and Energy Storage Intelligence Service (via EV World Newswire), the market for traction batteries in light duty electric vehicles is expected to grow from just $484 million in 2007 to $3.8 billion in 2012.

    • Business Wire Bullets:
    • – In 2007, about 500,000 hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) were sold, accounting for $484 million worth of batteries. But plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and pure EVs are slated for introduction in 2010, driving the market for all light electric vehicles — including HEVs, PHEVs, and pure EVs — to 3 million units in 2012, leading to a battery market of $3.8 billion in that year.
    • – Although HEVs will continue to grow at 40% annually in the next five years, the next frontier is PHEVs, which need greater energy storage capacities to support longer all-electric ranges. As a result, PHEVs generate more battery revenue per vehicle — meaning that a small increase in PHEV shipments will have a disproportionate effect on the size of the light EV battery market.
    • – This growth in PHEVs will drive booming market share for Li-ion batteries: In 2012, Li-ion will account for 46% of the EV battery market, currently dominated by nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries, which had a 99% market share in 2007.
    • – Supporting such rapid growth in Li-ion batteries, will require major expansions in raw materials like lithium carbonate. Growth in EVs will lead to a boom in lithium exploration, with global mining companies going hunting for new economically recoverable lithium.
    • – Even with increasing raw materials production, the penetration rate of Li-ion batteries into the EV market could ultimately be constrained by the availability of lithium — not just battery manufacturing capacity expansion.

    “Lithium ion batteries can significantly extend the range of light electric vehicles, so companies and investors are right to be excited about them,” said Ying Wu, Senior Analyst for Lux Research’s Alternative Power and Energy Storage Intelligence Service. “However, Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles won’t hit the market in a big way for three more years — and the winner-take-all nature of the game means many companies will come to grief.”

    “A123Systems’ success in the EV market will not be a slam dunk,” added Wu. “The battery makers for the 2012 vintage PHEVs have not been chosen yet, automotive companies continue to pressure battery makers to reduce costs, and there’s stiff competition from firms like the LG Chem subsidiary, Compact Power, and Johnson Controls-Saft. Investors betting on A123 will need to be able to stomach steep risks. One thing is certain, though — A123Systems’ IPO will set a benchmark for company valuations in the battery industry.”

  5. jcwinnie
    Posted 2008-9-12 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    Peter Rosegg of Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) said the time is not too distant when electric cars will cost less and be more readily available on the market. HECO is looking at the situation, “closely and optimistically.” Sometime in the near future the company will be changing its meters to an advanced system that will let customers charge electric cars overnight for a cheaper rate.

    Studies done by the Natural Resources and Defense Council and the Electric Power Research Institute have shown that, electric cars are cheaper than driving cars running on fuel.

    Have you seen a car that looks like no other driving around Molokai? You might mistake it for a fancy golf cart or even a space-age vehicle from The Jetsons.

    In fact, it is not an ordinary car, it’s an electric car and it’s the only one on Molokai.

    Owned by Kala‘e resident John Wordin, the Dynasty Sedan, shipped from British Columbia, “generates a lot of interest.”

    To feed the curious minds, he actually does plug the car into a regular wall outlet. Every night, he plugs the car in, and when he wakes up, it’s charged. According to Wordin, the car takes four hours to fully charge, equaling one kilowatt-hour, and will run for approximately 30 miles at 25 mph. The vehicle uses a lot of energy uphill, but with a full charge, he makes it around town just fine.

    Wordin paid $14,500 for the car, and combined with shipping costs, the total price was around $20,000.

    At his Kala‘e home, 40 solar panels charge his vehicle and run the house. His water heater and outdoor power equipment are solar as well.

    The car, if charged twice a day, costs Wordin an extra dollar on his electric bill and gives him approximately 30 miles. In comparison with gas prices, Wordin can travel 150 miles on five dollars, the cost for approximately one gallon of gas.

    Besides helping his wallet, the car helps the environment. The average new vehicle has a smog/pollution index of 0.53 percent, while the electric car emits no pollution into the air.

    According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, for every gallon of gas burned, 20 pounds of pollution and carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere.

    Wordin’s concern about the environment has been growing since 1998. He read books and articles on the subject of America’s fuel dependency and has been preparing himself for the necessary changes.

    “My interest in this has evolved over a period of time,” he said.

    Wordin is trying to provide an example for the community. He has seen gas prices continue to rise, the economy fall and the environment suffer.

    “People are still buying SUVs; something is definitely wrong,” he said. “They just don’t get it, oil is running out. The world is changing and I see examples everyday.”

    Wordin’s dream is to see the whole island driving electric cars.

    “Sure, it’s possible,“ he said. “People just have to realize there are profound changes in the economy, as well as the environment.”

  6. jcwinnie
    Posted 2008-9-12 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    Some of the companies that may come to grief are those that have sprung up to convert hybrid vehicles to plug-in hybrids. It takes a great deal of courage to enter the plug-in conversion market.

    Conversion underway at the Advanced Vehicle Research Center in Raleigh
    News Observer Staff Photo by Juli Leonard

    “Darcy Harlow of A123 Systems visits the Advanced Vehicle Research Center in Raleigh to give an update on installation of the battery for a Prius.” The Advanced Vehicle Research Center in Raleigh is one of eight center nationwide “authorized to do the job.” While not yet a smart return on investment, mainly due to the high cost of batteries, who is to say whether those paying for such conversions are being well-prepared for the possibility of even higher gasoline prices?

    “The Advanced Vehicle Research Center is one of a handful of companies that converts the Prius or other hybrids into plug-in hybrids, doubling their gas mileage.” With Otto Mobile manufacturers seeing sales decline with rising gas prices and demand increasing for more efficient vehicles, not to mention those la-la-landers talking about climate catastrophe, conversions companies could be out-produced by the major manufacturers.

    Toyota has the advantage when it comes to the capability to introduce plug-in hybrids to a global market. Nevertheless, General Motors contines to plug away with development of Chevy Volt. And, while Toyota may have little to fear from the company that was the number one producer of automobiles in the world, they are looking over their shoulder at their China neighbors. BYD is promising plug-in hybrids in short order.

    Depending upon how adaptable the conversion companies are, rather than facing demise, they could transform into the leading sources of competency with electric drive vehicles.

  7. jcwinnie
    Posted 2008-10-2 at 10:04 am | Permalink

    Hey, you are just in time for a Romm rant! Professor Romm informs, “The world’s second-largest maker of solar batteries plans a massive increase in capacity to meet soaring demand.”

    Bloomberg reports:

    The company will raise the capacity to 6 gigawatts as early as 2014, from 1 gigawatt estimated for 2010…

    Sharp, which lost its market-leading position to Thalheim, Germany-based Q-Cells AG last year, is focusing on expanding its solar-cell output through thin-film technology. This uses 1 percent the amount of silicon needed for conventional models….

    One gigawatt of power is enough to light up at least 200,000 households of four people in Japan….

    “Hey, that is great news! Why do you think it is a rant?”

    Wait for it…

    Solar Battery Manufacturing

    “Graph illustrating the relative portion the United States has contributed to annual world production. The world shipments increased to a record high of 1194 MW during 2004, more than a 35-fold increase since 1989. The largest annual increase in U.S. production since data has been collected, a 60% increase, occurred between 2003 and 2004. U.S. production reached a record of more than 139 MW in 2004.”

    Yes, the United States created the solar cell industry and literally launched it into space 50 years ago. And, yes, solar PV is going to be one of the largest job-creating industries of the century, projected to grow from “from a $20 billion industry in 2007 to $74 billion by 2017.” And, yes, today America has precisely one of the top ten PV plants, with plummeting market share, as the figure above makes all too painfully clear

    But don’t get all friggin’ sentimental on me. Think of the few billion dollars U.S. taxpayers saved because:

    • President Reagan gutted Jimmy Carter’s renewable energy program (see “Who got us in this energy mess? Start with Ronald Reagan“).
    • Newt Gingrich blocked President Clinton’s effort to boost funding for solar PV research and deployment programs.
    • Conservatives in general like John McCain and George Bush opposed the kind of funding and incentives that countries like Japan and Germany embraced.

    The fundamental tenets of conservative ideology say that if countries like Japan and Germany and China make most of the PV cells it must be because they have an inherent “comparative” advantage over us. You gotta start reading your Ricardo, people. Any card-carrying conservative knows that if other countries manage to get millions of their workers’ hands dirty actually making stuff, it’s only because they are better at it. We’re still the brainiacs who invent the technologies first and then wisely save a few pennies of the taxpayer dollars not promoting American technologies into billion-dollar American industries. We’ve still got all those Internet-related jobs, and it’s not like the government had anything to do with that.

    So please, all you progressives and enviros out there, stop your whining. The plan is unfolding as it should, indeed as it must. Do not argue with the invisible hand. People will think you’re crazy.

    Sure the those thin films look cool. They look like something that could generate a lot of jobs for a high-tech, high wage economy.

    thin-film-solar-rr001.jpg

    But don’t be deceived by liberal propaganda. I have it on very solid information that real men who want real jobs drill, baby, drill.

    “I see what you mean. Woke up on the wrong side of the bed, did we?”

    Yaz.

  8. jcwinnie
    Posted 2008-10-7 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    John A. Rogers of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, and colleagues at the Materials Research Laboratory have created extremely thin solar cells, which can be made into flexible, even partially transparent, arrays. Their technique involves creating a series of precisely spaced “microbars” on a block of single-crystal silicon.

    Such “microbars” have a thickness of a few micrometers. “Through an etching process, the bars are undercut so they can be lifted off the remaining silicon using a block of rubbery material, thus creating doped regions. Such p-n junctions are the main feature of most photo voltaic cells.

    Wavy Silicon, Good Gravy
    Circuit diagram (top frame) and optical images of a stretchable, “wavy” silicon ring oscillator
    circuit on a rubber substrate, in the “as fabricated” flat state (top micrograph) and in moderate
    and high states of biaxial compression (middle and bottom micrographs, respectively).These micrographs illustrate how a substrate of another material can be transferred. This transfer-printing process can be repeated many times to build a cell. A metal grid is overlaid to create electrical connections.

    According to Henry Fountain, “The technique may allow the fabrication of solar arrays with a variety of characteristics.”

    For example, the researchers say it would be possible to print the cells on rollable plastic sheets that would be easy to transport and install. Or by printing the cells on glass in different densities, solar arrays could be incorporated into windows that have a specific level of transparency.

  9. jcwinnie
    Posted 2009-9-22 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    Reading the above facetious and snarky post, I realized that the unsuspecting reader would have to know that the nanophosphate lithium-ion battery packs for DeWalt power tools are made by A123Systems.

    Anyway, according to Mike Millikin, “the American Ceramics Society awarded A123Systems the Corporate Technical Achievement Award for developing breakthrough ceramics that enable new technologies such as stable, high-power, rechargeable batteries that are safer and more powerful than earlier lithium-ion rechargeable varieties.”

    Yet-Ming Chiang

    A123 co-founder, Dr. Yet-Ming Chiang (Professor of Ceramics, MIT) began working on a recognized problem with lithium iron phosphate, the active material typically used in lithium-ion rechargeable batteries. The pure material is non-conductive, thus devices made with it use materials such as lithium cobalt oxide for the positive electrode. In order to be safely usable, however, these batteries have power limitations that make them ineffective for many uses.

    Chiang began working on ways to alter the compound itself by adding small amounts of metal and uses special techniques to process it. The result of his research was a breakthrough, nanoscale phosphate cathode material with high electronic conductivity that enables high-power, safe chemistry, long life and environmental soundness, at a relatively low cost. Their long life leads to reduced lifecycle and system costs resulting in greater overall price-performance for rechargeable and disposable batteries. Chiang began working with partners to develop the product for mass production in 2002. A123Systems launched in 2005.

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  1. By After Gutenberg » Veloteq on 2008-9-4 at 9:36 am

    [...] this blog recently noted, e-bikes need a standard, low cost battery packs that are reliable, robust, and powerful. VRLA [...]

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