The FAO (United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization) has a new analytical framework for developing sustainable biofuel strategies, it was announced at a meeting of experts associated with BEFS (Bio Energy and Food Security project). The Biopact team also relayed word that FAO is organizing a high level conference on World Food Security and the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy in Rome from 3 to 5 June.
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Total bio-energy potential is estimated to be maximum 1545 Exajoules per year by 2050, the bulk of it found in Africa and Latin America. 1545 EJ is more than 6 times the current amount of petroleum used by the entire world (total global energy demand today is 420EJ/yr, of which around 220EJ comes in the form of oil products)
The analytical framework allows governments interested in entering the bioenergy sector to calculate the effect of their policy decisions on the food security of their populations… Bioenergy can affect food prices and rural incomes and thus has important implications – both positive and negative — for food security. [...] Applying the analytical framework will enable national policy-makers to minimize negative consequences while maximizing positive outcomes.
Potential negative effects are increased food prices for poor urban populations. Positive effects are:
- The new market opportunities for vast poor rural populations and the increased income derived from these new markets;
- The capacity to strengthen rural development; and
- The opportunity to make developing countries less dependent on imported food and petroleum products, which both affect local food production.
The model draws on existing mathematical modeling tools such as QUICKSCAN, which calculates global bioenergy potential to 2050, and FAO’s COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries.
Biopact Recommended References
Some of the most widely quoted (only from the Copernicus Institute’s researchers) are:
Edward M.W. Smeets, André P.C. Faaij, Iris M. Lewandowski, Wim C. Turkenburg, A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 56-106
Andre Faaij (2007), Global Outlook on Development of Sustainable Biomass Resource Potentials [*.pdf], First Conference of the European Biomass Co-Firing Network, Budapest, Hungary, July 2007.
M. Hoogwijk, A. Faaij, R. van den Broek, G. Berndes, D. Gielen, W. Turkenburg, Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy. Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 25 No.2, 2003, pp. 119-133.
Hoogwijk, M., Faaij, A., Eickhout, B., de Vries, B. and Turkenburg, W. 2005a. Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October, Pp. 225-257.
C. Hamelinck, A. Faaij, H. den Uil, H. Boerrigter, Production of FT transportation fuels from biomass; technical options, process analysis and optimisation and development potential. Energy, the International Journal, Vol. 29, No. 11, September 2004, Pp. 1743-1771
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Geertje van Hooijdonk, André P.C. Faaij, Future prospects for the production of ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 28, Issue 4, April 2005, Pages 384-410
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Roald A.A. Suurs, André P.C. Faaij, Techno-economic analysis of International Bio-energy Trade Chains. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 2, August 2005, Pages 114-134
Monique Hoogwijk, André Faaij, Bas Eickhout, Bert de Vries, Wim Turkenburg, Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October 2005, Pages 225-257.
André P.C. Faaij, Bio-energy in Europe: Changing technology choices. Energy Policy (Special Issue on Renewable Energy in Europe), Vol 34/3, February 2006, Pp. 322-342
I. Lewandowski, A. Faaij, Steps towards the development of a certification system for sustainable bio-energy trade, Biomass & Bio-energy, Volume 30, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 83-104
Bothwell Batidzirai, André Faaij, Edward Smeets, Biomass and bioenergy supply from Mozambique, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 54-81
Andre P.C. Faaij, Julije Domac, Emerging international bio-energy markets and opportunities for socio-economic development, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 7-19
K. Damen, A. Faaij, A Greenhouse gas balance of two existing international biomass import chains; the case of residue co-firing in a pulverised coal-fired power plant in the Netherlands Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (Special Issue), Volume 11, Number 5-6, September 2006, Pp. 1023-1050.
Junginger, M., Faaij, A., Rosillo-Calle, F., Wood, J., The growing role of biofuels – Opportunities, challenges and pitfalls, International Sugar Journal, Volume 108, Issue 1295, November 2006, Pages 618-629
C. Hamelinck, A.Faaij, Outlook for advanced biofuels. Energy Policy, Vol. 34, Issue 17, November 2006, Pages 3268-3283
M. Junginger, E. de Visser, K. Hjort-Gregersen, J. Koornneef, R. Raven, A. Faaij, W.C. Turkenburg Technological learning in bio-energy systems. Energy Policy, Volume 34, Issue 18, December 2006, Pages 4024-4041
V. Dornburg, J. van Dam, A. Faaij, Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large scale biomass use on a country level (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy, 2006)
E. Smeets, A. Faaij, Bioenergy potentials from forestry to 2050 (In press: Climatic Change, 2006).
J. van Dam, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski, G. Fischer, Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenario’s. (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy)
Martijn Verdonk, Carel Dieperink, André Faaij, Governance of the emerging bio-energy markets (In Press: Energy Policy)