Absolutely Now

Democratic Presidential hopeful Jonathan Edwards had a good sound bite: "It won’t be easy, but it is time to ask the American people to be patriotic about something other than war."

Still, the testosterone laden language may still be needed to reach some of the audience. The Manhattan Project analogy is something that Plug-in Partners has used. Felix Kramer, founder of CalCars and co-founder of Plug-in Partners, refers to an essay, entitled "The New World War II" written by Patrick Mazza of Climate Solutions, a Pacific Northwest think-tank.

Kramer provides1 Cal Cars Nooz readers with Mazza’s provocative response to the just-published, Synthesis Report from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). I re-post the Mazza response here.

THE NEW WORLD WAR II
19 November 07
by Patrick Mazza, Climate Solutions

The alarm bell is gonging. The world’s climate scientists have now sounded a call to general quarters - The world must now level off global warming pollution, begin to reduce it within seven years, and cut it up to 85 percent by 2050, or set off the greatest catastrophes in the history of the human race, and some of the greatest in the Earth’s geological record.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading scientific body on global warming and climate change, released its latest scientific synthesis report over the weekend http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf. It came as the firmest statement yet that the climate crisis is now upon us and immediate action to dramatically reduce the fossil fuel pollution causing global warming is crucial.

"Warming of the climate system is now unequivocal," the scientists report. New heat records continue to be made, sea level rise is accelerating and tropical storms are intensifying. If humanity does not quickly gain control of its global warming emissions, a quarter of more of the Earth’s species are threatened with extinction. Our own species is threatened with water stress and accompanying disruptions in food supplies. This Washington Post article presents a good summary of the findings.

Satellite observation indicates more rapid loss of sea ice than computer models predicted


Permafrost melting is widespread and no IPCC model has taken into consideration the feedback from a melting permafrost and, thus, the likely future impact of permafrost melting has been underestimated. “Whereas the models indicate that about half of the ice loss from 1979 to 2006 was due to increased greenhouse gases, and the other half due to natural variations in the climate system, the new study indicates that greenhouse gases may be playing a significantly greater role.”

It appears global warming and its effects are accelerating faster than expected, and even the harsh new IPCC report might be too optimistic. This Der Spiegel commentary notes details that did not make it into the synthesis:

  • Since 2000 carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have been growing over twice as fast as the average in the 1990s.

  • The Arctic ice pack surface reached a record low in 2007, 23 percent below the previous record in 2007. These images reveals the extent of ice loss.

  • While Earth’s oceans and plants have been absorbing half of human CO2 emissions, it appears their capacity to do so is declining.

The goal now is to hold temperature increases below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, beyond which loss of rainforests and polar ice becomes virtually inevitable. And when rainforests release their massive carbon stores into the atmosphere, while sunlight-reflecting icecaps turn into solar energy-absorbing blue oceans, climate change begins to feed on itself. Ultimately, these natural feedbacks could easily dwarf the effects of human global warming emissions, creating an utterly horrifying reality for our children’s generation and those that come after.

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, addressing the IPCC meeting in Spain where the findings were announced, said, "These things are as frightening as science-fiction movies. But they are even more terrifying, because they are real."

It is clear that we humans have already committed our planet to a level of climate damage. Even if we stay below the 3.6 degree threshold, the Post article notes:

The seas will continue to swell for centuries from thermal expansion and meltwater from ice caps and glaciers; the oceans will turn more acidic; most coral reefs will become lifeless expanses; floods and storms will increase; and millions of people will be short of the water they need.

Rise in Global Temperatures


“Variations of atmospheric CO2 occurring as a climate feedback on the time scale of the ice ages can be ~100 ppm in 5000 years, or 0.02 ppm/year. This atmospheric change is due to a shifting of carbon among the atmosphere, ocean, soil and biosphere compartments within the surface carbon pool, a warmer climate driving more CO2 into the air. This natural glacial-interglacial variation of atmospheric CO2 is quite rapid in comparison with the geologic cycling of carbon between the Earth’s crust and the surface carbon pool, which amounts to ~10**(-4) ppm/year of CO2.”

As a climate activist now going into my tenth year working on this issue, I have often pondered why it is so hard for people to wrap their heads around it. My conclusion is that it is so large and encompassing it is out of scale with virtually anything else we can comprehend. Nuclear war or an asteroid strike are comparable, but neither of those are everyday affairs. Global warming is happening all around us, as a result of the most mundane of our activities - driving a car, turning on the lights, buying stuff made and transported with fossil energy. It’s hard for us to see what’s happening because we are so enmeshed in it.

This sets up a great deal of cognitive dissonance. We go about our everyday business, head to work, take care of the kids, do the shopping, while all the time our world plunges towards catastrophe. In some ways we seem like a global RMS Titanic, where the passengers danced to the band while the captain ordered the boilers stoked with more coal, trying to set a new trans-Atlantic speed record - All the time, headed toward the iceberg.

Rather than playing out the voyage of those unfortunate souls, let us be inspired by another historic parallel, World War II and the people who won it. Faced with deadly peril they rose to the challenge with full commitment and dedication. Individually they planted victory gardens. Together they built the ships and planes, and fought the fights needed to win. In just the same way, we now must do all we can personally to reduce our own emissions, while we join together to make fundamental changes in our energy and economic systems.

Those broader changes will require a combination of private sector innovation and public policy leadership. Most crucially we need to set firm legal limits on our global warming emissions with targets and timetables to progressively reduce levels. They must achieve or even better exceed the targets laid out by the IPCC scientists. We can no longer treat the atmosphere as a free dumping ground.

The changes required to meet the climate challenge are truly as large as anything we have undertaken since World War II. The scale can seem overwhelming without taking into account a hugely important and hope-inspiring fact - Since the challenge originates from everywhere, we can take significant actions to address the challenge anywhere. Today, led by Seattle, U.S. cities representing a quarter of the American population have committed to try to reach Kyoto climate treaty goals. States representing half the U.S. population are at some stage of setting limits on their own global warming emissions, including economic giants such as California, New York and Illinois.

Northwest states including Washington and Oregon are engaged in this process, with some significant gains already booked. Arguably, Northwest states and cities are several years ahead of the curve as a result, already beginning to level off global warming pollution. Each state has made moves such as adopting standards for auto tailpipe emissions, appliance and building efficiency, and use of renewable electricity and fuels. Now the challenge will be to continue leading by enacting legal limits on pollution that push the pollution curve downwards. A Climate Action bill to advance this process will reach the Washington Legislature in 2008.

The people of our parents’ and grandparents’ "greatest generation" who won World War II, when presented with a clear threat, rose in response with an unprecedented devotion of resources, as well as courage and commitment. As the climate threat becomes just as clear, it is time for us to rise to our generation’s great challenge, reduce global warming pollution, build clean, prosperous economies, and leave a legacy to our children and theirs of a habitable world in which they too can prosper and thrive. It’s up to us to lay claim to our own generation’s greatness. The time is absolutely now.

Continue reading here: Commitment to a Clean Energy Future

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