After Gutenberg

PSA Peugeot Citroën is Western Europe’s second-largest carmaker, with a marketshare of 14.5%

J.D. Power analyst Anthony Pratt “reckons that the U.S. accounts for about 70 percent of global hybrid sales, with 23 percent in Asia and only 7 percent in Europe.”

Thus, Auto Insider (10/26/05), a feature of the Motown Mouthpiece, The Detroit News, is telling American to forget hybrids. Stop buying them. Stick to vehicles that average 27.6 MPG and use Ford diesel engines. Really, stop now, Toyota's hybrid venture is just a bunch of public relations, not like the truth that we are telling you.

“Diesels are all round superior to hybrids in terms of running costs, manufacturing costs, flexibility in town and highway, they are winning hands down. Hybrids’ only plus? A marginal advantage in very heavy traffic congestion,” said Peter Schmidt, editor of the pan-European bi-weekly newsletter Automotive Industry Data.

Sounds much like a redux of a previously mentioned debate. I reckon that we will see a great deal more against the new technology as Ford and GM look at their inventories and plant investments in the same old technology.

Spin works this way: get a bit of truth, fluff it up and use it to discredit the other person's truth. I previously reported on a comparison between a diesel and gasoline subcompact that some British automotive writers made. Their results showed better performance by the gasoline powered car. The same situation to which the pan-European automotive expert admitted as did a German magazine that compared a German-built diesel to a Japanese-built gasoline-electric hybrid.

Since only seven percent of all hybrids now sold are sold in Europe, Auto Insider wants you to believe that the same trend will continue. Hybrids will fail to have much impact in the European automotive market because diesels are so well established. Diesels currently account for 50 percent of car sales in Europe.

Which obviously begs the question, what about diesel-electric hybrids? “Too soon to tell” would be an honest response. While this has prompted other rumination, there are few examples of diesel-electric cars.

According to GCC, PSA Peugeot Citroën is “currently working on a hybrid solution with the development of a very fuel-efficient hybrid diesel-electric car”; GCC tells us that DCX has the S320 Bluetec Hybrid under development; and, again according to GCC, Ford has a diesel-electric prototype.

VW Ecoracer

Volkswagen currently is diplaying its EcoRacer at the Tokyo Motor Show. The mid-engine diesel sports car offers fuel consumption as low as 3.4 liters/100km (69 mpg US) and a maximum speed of 230 km/h (143 mph). “Adios, treehuggers! Eat my particulate matter.”

Between 1974 and 2005 Volkswagen has built more than 22 million Golfs. The Golf like its predecessor, the Beetle, is notable for setting a global design standard. It is a small hatchback designed for people on a budget, yet with enough useable space to be considered a family-oriented car. The automotive engineering includes two-wheel, front wheel drive, a transverse-mounted engine in the front plus sophisticated suspension and a fuel efficient drivetrain.

Volkswagen-Audi also makes some excellent diesel engines. With this global position, you would think… But, no, it would seem that VW is saying, “Hybrids? We don’t have no steeking hybrids.”

(Cough, cough): After the article about the plans of PSA Peugeot Citroën, Engineer-Poet commented that one advantage to a diesel-hybrid is that the battery handles peak and surge power demands, thus allowing the diesel to run at a lower fuel / air ratio. Running at the maximum-power limit tends to create pockets of incompletely burned fuel so that the diesel engine emits more particulates. It is better to let the electric motor provide the oomph while the turbocharger “spools up”. This will improve emissions quite a bit.

I previously noted that older studies presented by John Heywood from the Sloan Automotive Laboratory favor a diesel hybrid design over a fuel cell vehicles because of a lower amount of energy consumed during life cycles. Still the highest marks went to a fuel cell hybrid vehicle: a battery-powered vehicle with a fuel cell range extender. Such analyses generally show that electric vehicles do better.

If I had to take a guess, I would guess until recently the Detroit “play book” called for greater diesel powered vehicles in times of rising oil prices. The Auto Insider article noted that in 2004 about one-half of one percent of all cars and light trucks sold in America were hybrids while three per cent were diesel powered. The article cited a projection by automotive research firm J.D. Power and Associates: those market shares would increase to 4.1 percent for hybrids and 7.6 percent for diesels by 2012.

A significant assumption in such a projection was that diesel powered vehicles would continue to meet air control standards. The Auto Insider article noted three areas of concern:

1. Fuel
2. PM
3. NO_x

With breezy assurance, the author indicated that all was well. The technology would provide ultra-low sulfur diesel, filter the particulate matter (read soot) from the exhaust, and with sophisticated processes reduce nitrous oxide emissions sufficiently. “No cause for alarm; all is well.”

The article was mute about a fourth area of concern: CO₂. This past hurricane season has made more people aware that perhaps there really is something to this global warming business and, gosh, maybe something needs to be done about all of these “Greenhouse Gases”.

All is definitely not well and Europe and the United States are the chief offenders. In the U.S. there are 500 million ICE powered vehicles. As the World Wildlife Fund wants us to know, the U.S. is “pegged” over into the red when it comes to emissions for transport per capita. So, whether diesels will remain as popular in Europe or grow in popularity in the U.S. may depend upon what car makers decide to offer.

What might be an indicators that a shift is occuring? The results from military and commercial experiments are worth watching. And, a big indicator is that there is a boom in hybrid bus sales. In monitoring this market it would be important to note the type of diesel-electric hybrid. For instance, a small study conducted by the University of Connecticut compared a diesel-hybrid to a diesel transit bus. There was no real advantage to the hybrid in either emission or fuel economy in real-world testing. The diesel-electric hybrid used in the comparison was a parallel hybrid rather than a serial hybrid. Despite a much higher initial price, urban transit companies are investing in cleaner, cheaper, diesel-electric serial hybrids. One might assume that fleet managers are discovering that in the long run they are cleaner and cheaper.

Hino Hybrid Ranger

Possibly at variance with the UConn findings are Hino Hybrids. GCC reports that this diesel-hybrid “delivers 20% better fuel economy than conventional diesel models and reduces CO2 emissions by approximately 17%. The truck also reduces NOx emissions by more than 50% and PM by 85%.”

The drivetrain is a combination of an inline 4-cylinder, 4.7-liter diesel (132 kW / 177 hp) with a 23 kW (31 hp) electric motor / generator and a 274V Nickel-Hydrogen battery. The system features regenerative braking and stop-start functionality. The Hino Ranger Hybrid truck is a “mild hybrid”. The electric motor assists the engine whenever high torque is needed, such as during startup and acceleration; the diesel engine supplies all power during regular cruising.

While again it is too soon to predict the eventual outcome, there is evidence of a market for tugs, tractors and other workhorse EVs. We have yet to see diesel hybrid tractors for short-haul trucking, nonetheless, besides the Hino Hybrid there is a growing number of light and medium duty, diesel hybrid trucks, e.g.,

1. Volvo is developing diesel-electric hybrid trucks for the USAF
2. DCX plans to sell diesel-electric Dodge Ram pickup trucks. DCX is probably closest to full production of a diesel-electric commercial van. DCX has been testing versions of the diesel hybrid Sprinter van with and without a plug.
3. International plans to produce diesel-electric hybrid trucks. Initial independent test results of prototype hybrid utility trucks jointly developed by International and Eaton and being used in a pilot program have shown a decrease in fuel consumption of 40% to 60% measured against driving and work cycles typical of the utility industry.

Note: All the links in the above list are from Green Car Congress.

So, American car buyers forget about hybrids. Our Detroit automotive executives need to sleep better at night.